[Growth & acquisition]() / [Use cases]() / [Incrementality testing]() [How it works]() [What you get]() [Scope]() [Start a review]() [Growth & acquisition]()[Measurement & martech]() # Prove what’s working, then move the budget. Holdout and geo tests that show what each channel actually adds, and a budget decision made on the result. [Start with a growth engine review]() [How it works]() Creator-led paid · holdout **+18%**new customers, likely between 9% and 27% **1,180**Regions with the ads **1,000**Held-out regions Scale by 30% · check again Feb 2 Regions with the ads against regions without, over four weeks. ## Sound familiar? - Every platform claims credit for the same sale. - The agency says it’s working. Finance isn’t sure. - Budget moves on whichever dashboard is loudest. Attribution can’t tell you what would have happened without the ads. Only a test can. ## What changes. ShowTodayWith the engine Proof Platform-reported ROAS A holdout against people or regions who didn’t see it Decisions In the quarterly review When the test reads, with an owner Uncertainty Hidden Shown as a range Follow-through Forgotten A date to check again ## How it works. 5 steps, 5 stages. - AI**2** - Rules and automation**1** - Your team**2** - Approval 1. 1 Ask 1. Your team ### Pick the question The spend you’re least sure about, and the result that would change the plan. 2. 2 Design 1. AI ### Design a fair test Sizes regions, length and budget from your history so the result is readable. - Google Meridian - Haus 3. 3 Run 1. Rules and automation ### Run it and keep it clean Holdout regions stay dark; spend and delivery are logged. - Meta - Google Ads 4. 4 Read 1. AI ### Read the result Lift with a range, turned into profit after ads. 5. 5 Decide 1. Your team Approval ### Make the call Scale, cut or retest, with an owner and a date to check again. Every decision gets a date to check again ## What you get. Real work, every week. Test plan Creator-led paid Does creator-led paid bring customers we wouldn’t get anyway? Method Geo holdout across 8 regions Held out 3 regions see no creator ads Runs 4 weeks, from October 6 Decision Scale if new customers rise 10% or more Every test starts with a plan, and the decision it will drive, agreed before any spend moves. Decision ledger Next check · Feb 2 - Creator-led paidHoldout · 4 weeks **+18%**Scaled - YouTubeGeo test · 6 weeks **Too close**Extended - Coupon affiliatesHoldout · 4 weeks **−2%**Cut The decision ledger: every test, its result and what was done about it. ## How you’ll know it’s working. 1. Profit added per extra dollar The return on the next dollar, not the average. 2. Decisions made on tested evidence How much of the budget rests on proof. 3. Gap between claimed and tested results How far platform reports drift from reality. Baselines agreed before we build. Is moving $50,000 a month worth it? Budget moved $50,000 a month Return on the old channel 2.2× Return on the new channel 3.0× Profit before ads 45% Running and setup cost $8,000 a month Net gain +$10,000 a month If the new channel returns 2.4× instead of 3.0×, the same move loses $3,500 a month. That’s why the range matters. ## Works with what you have. Ads - Meta - Google Ads - TikTok Measurement - Haus - Google Meridian - Northbeam - Triple Whale We configure first Meta and Google’s lift studies answer simple questions for free. We use them where they fit. We build when Questions span channels, or you test often enough to own the method. ## What a first build includes. Built in your accounts, around your team. Scope, fee and baseline agreed before we start. 1. 1 Design 2. 2 Build 3. 3 Run it, or hand it over [Start with a review]() [Scope this build]() ### We build - A testing roadmap ranked by spend at risk - Test designs sized to your data - Readouts in profit, with ranges - A decision ledger with dates to check again ### We start from - Two years of weekly sales and spend, by region - Ad account access - Product margins ### From your team Owner Head of growth, with finance Involves - Growth - Finance - Agency or channel owners ## Questions teams ask. Are we big enough to test? It depends on volume. Google’s lift studies need around 1,000 conversions, and geo tests need enough regions and history. If you’re not there yet, we’ll say so and start elsewhere. Do we have to turn ads off? Only for a small set of regions or people, for a few weeks. The holdout is sized so the cost of learning is worth it. Who owns it once it’s running? You do. It’s built in your accounts, documented, with training for the people who run it. Ownership usually sits with your head of growth, with finance. We can keep running it with you, or step back. How do we start? Usually with a growth engine review: two to four weeks, a fixed fee credited to the build, and a plan that’s yours. If the job is already clear, we can scope the build directly. ## Part of your growth engine. One of 11 use cases, in 6 engines. [See the whole growth engine]() 1. [Creators & partners **3**]() 2. [Paid **2**]() 3. [Creative testing **1**]() 4. [Search & AI **2**]() 5. [Winback **1**]() 6. [Measurement & martech **2**]() In measurement & martech - **Incrementality testing**You’re here - [**Bring growth in-house**Bring agency work in-house without losing ground]() Works with - [**Profit signals**Send ad platforms profit, not revenue]() - [**Affiliate program**Rebuild your affiliate program around profit]() See it at work - [**In the Fernway launch**Week 8: we checked that it worked]() - [**Also in**Finance & business intelligence]() ## Know what’s working before you spend more. Start with a growth engine review. [Start with a growth engine review]() [**Talk it through first**15 minutes]() We reply within one business day. --- Source: [https://www.thekeating.co/use-cases/incrementality-testing/]() [Contact Keating & Co](mailto:nelson@thekeating.co) · [Agent guidance](https://www.thekeating.co/llms.txt)